Experienced Founders Need Slow Conviction Over Fast Momentum

Too many great founders ask ‘can I start this?’ when the important question is ‘should I?’.

Incorporating and raising capital is at least a 3 year commitment, even if you realize you are wrong fast. When you think about the salary and options you’re walking from, you are making a SERIOUS investment. The difference between ‘can I’ and ‘should I’ is the whole ballgame.

If this sounds like you or someone you know, apply here.

Helping people figure this out before they commit is work we love doing.

The Real Opportunity Cost Problem

Marc Andreessen recently made a distinction that cuts to the heart of this: real founders have spent 5-10-20 years thinking deeply about their domain. They’ve developed genuine expertise and conviction about what needs to change. “Fake” founders, by contrast, are looking for problems to solve rather than solving problems they already understand.

Most startup advice is targeted at the latter category. It assumes founders need to discover what to build through customer interviews and rapid iteration. This is fine for founders with low opportunity cost—the 25-year-old data scientist at Delta in Minneapolis with no network and a $90K salary for whom getting ‘in the game’ is as important as anything.

But what about when you’re not that founder? When you already have domain expertise. You have a network. You can raise money. The question isn’t whether you can start a company—it’s whether you should commit the next decade to this particular idea.

The Case for Slow Conviction

Real conviction takes time to develop. Not years, but some real time and diligence. It requires mapping out specific predictions about how the world will change, why you know that, interrogating why those changes haven’t happened yet, and pressure-testing your assumptions until you’re ready to bet a decade on them.

This process looks different for experienced founders:

Start with your convictions, not customer problems.
Write bold, specific predictions about how you believe the world works on a 10-15 year horizon.

Interrogate the present.
Why doesn’t the world work that way today? What’s really preventing your vision from becoming reality?

Map the changes.
What needs to shift for your prediction to come true? Technology, behavior, regulation, economics?

Find your leverage.
Given your background and capabilities, where can you have the most impact? What do you want to work on changing?

Work backwards from success.
Imagine the IPO S-1. If you’re as right as you can be, what does the company look like?

Break it down.
Map every assumption that needs to be true. How speculative is each? How much would it cost to test? How valuable if proven right?

Earn your conviction.
Pressure-test the most critical assumptions until you’re ready to commit or confident to pass.

What You Get from Slow Conviction

When you finally incorporate after this process, everything changes. Your network rallies around something substantive instead of a vague vision. Investors understand why this is worth funding, not just why you’re worth backing. Co-founders understand why this is worth joining, not just why you’re worth following.

Most importantly, you understand why this is worth your life.

You’re not pivoting every six months based on customer feedback. You’re not manufacturing growth to hit fundraising milestones. You’re executing a thesis you’ve already stress-tested with the most expensive asset you have: your time.

Just Ask These Folks We’ve Helped Reach Conviction

Ellen Da Silva: Head of Strategic Partnerships at Him, Biz Ops at X, Sequoia Scout > Founded Summer Health

Hemal Shah: CPO at Root, Product at X and Meta > VP of Product at Atlassian/Product at OpenAI

Ryan Caldbeck: Founder of CircleUp, COO at Dune Analytics > Founded Waystation

Ryan Williams: Founder of Cadre > Founder in Stealth

Rhys Alar: Director of Engineer at Cedar > Founded Rooted Ag

Stu Landesberg: Founder and CEO at Grove Collaborative > Founder in Stealth

and more…

Need more conviction to apply? Keep reading: For founders and investors.